Mariners trade Jean Segura to the Phillies

Another official Mariners trade - Seattle is sending Jean Segura, Juan Nicasio, and James Pazos, and one million dollars (to cover Segura's trade bonus) to the Phillies in exchange for J.P. Crawford and Carlos Santana. Though the trade has been rumored for the past 24-48 hours or so, people were eagerly awaiting to hear the official details. Well, the details are out, and both Mariners fans and baseball officials are confused and upset.

For Philadelphia, the trade seems like a steal. They are receiving an all star shortstop in his prime, and signed to nice team-friendly contract. He can be a fixture in the Phillies' infield and lineup for years to come, while still allowing them ample room to sign free agents. Nicasio had a rough year marred by injuries, but may be able to bounce back in 2019, and in any case, he only has one year remaining on his contract. Pazos is a nice young, hard throwing lefty reliever who can get both lefties and righties out. Though he had a rough second-half last season, he is team controllable, cheap, and talented. He may be able to figure things out again in 2019, and if he does, he will be a nice addition to the Phillies bullpen.

This trade instantly makes the Phillies better without taking away anything significant from them.

Things look less rosy for the Mariners. Crawford is a good young player. (Technically he is no longer a prospect.) Last year he was ranked a top 40 prospect - #14 by Baseball Prospectus, #16 by Baseball America, and #37 by MLB.com. He battled injuries last year and did not live up to expectations, posting a .214/.319/.712 slash line. Looking back on his 2017 season in AAA, his performance was also subpar, hitting just .243 with 5 stolen bases. He hit 15 homers, which is similar to what Jean Segura provides, but Crawford's hitting ability just doesn't seem to be comparable to Segura's. Crawford might turn out to be a solid player, but it's hard to see him filling Segura's shoes.

Acquiring Santana in this manner does not make sense for Seattle. He is no longer a catcher, and is strictly a 1B/DH. Last year he had an OPS+ of just 105, which is replacement level, and not something you want to see out of a 1B/DH. He is owed a whopping $20.3 million next year, and $20.8 million in 2020, with a $500,000 buyout for 2021. Many are saying that the M's will try to flip Santana in return for a mid-level prospect or two, and I certainly hope they do. Are there going to be any buyers? I hope so. I just don't know who would want to take on a $40 million dollar 1B/DH who provides replacement level offensive production.

This seems like a significant overpay by the Mariners in a desperation move in order to save money. This is a very bad look for an organization still mired in a possible race and gender inequality scandal, who hasn't made a playoff appearance since 2001, and in their 41 years of existence, have never even been to a World Series. The Mariners are one of the most expensive teams in baseball in terms of cost of attendance. They are not a small market team, and have a lucrative television deal. They should be willing to spend money and eat costs of bad contracts if they have to. They are not in a position of having to overpay teams to take high-priced players off their hands. So this trade doesn't make sense for them.

I'm not sure what Jerry Dipoto was thinking. Is he banking on Crawford turning into the next Jean Segura in 2-3 years? Does he think he can actually flip Santana for a productive prospect or two? I think more likely Crawford is going to be the next Brad Miller - a decent player, but not an all star, and not the type of player you build a team around. Crawford reminds me of Jack Z, who banked on Dustin Ackley, Jesus Montero, and Justin Smoak to turn into superstars, but none of them did. (Though Smoak did turn into a good player with Toronto.) I sure hope I'm wrong, and Crawford does indeed turn into a star.

Segura is young, and has a team-friendly contract. It wasn't necessary for Seattle to trade him right now, if at all. Seattle should NOT have been desperate to trade him, and yet they were. They should have held out for a better offer, perhaps waiting until the July deadline. Instead Dipoto looks as if he were desperate to convince the Phillies to take Segura off his hands, when really it should have been the other way around.

This, along with the earlier James Paxton trade, leaves me worried for the future of the Mariners. I'd say this trade was much worse than the Paxton trade, though. If Sheffield turns out better than expected, the trade might end up looking better. But in order for the Jean Segura trade to look good, Crawford is going to have to fill Segura's shoes and become an all star, and that seems unrealistic right now.

Let's hope Jerry Dipoto knows something we don't.


Rob Kajiwara is a singer/songwriter, visual artist, baseball player, and human rights activist from Waipahu, Hawaii. For more information, please visit his website, www.RobKajiwara.com