The James Paxton Trade – Why It's Concerning for the Mariners

Bye-bye Paxton

Earlier today the Seattle Mariners traded James Paxton to the New York Yankees in exchange for Justus Sheffield, Erik Swanson, and Dom Thompson-Williams. 

The trade looks great for the Yankees. It gets them a first-rate starting pitcher in his prime with two years of arbitration remaining. Though Paxton has battled injuries throughout his career, he has so far avoided anything as serious as Tommy John, and as long as he can continue to stay clear of it for the next two years, he will likely be a huge asset for the Yankees. Paxton has a high ceiling and a high floor. At worst, he could be a 3^rdstarter for New York. At best, he could be a Cy-Young candidate. Regardless, he will in all likelihood help the Yankees make a couple of runs into the postseason. The Yankees got a top-tier low-cost starting pitcher without having to dig into the free agent market, and without giving up any particularly valuable assets. For the Yankees, this was a very smart baseball move. 

The trade looks less great for the Mariners. Many around baseball have called the Mariner's haul “light” or “underwhelming.”

Sheffield was the Yankees #1 prospect according to MLB Pipeline (and the #31 prospect overall), while Swanson was #11, and Thompson-Williams was in the low 20s. At first glance it might sound as if the Mariners did good for themselves, but I'm going to break it down a bit here as to why I find it concerning.

According to most scouts and people in MLB, Sheffield's ceiling is as a #3 starter, while his floor is as a reliever. Swanson's ceiling is thought to be as a 5^thor 6^thstarter, while his floor is as a reliever. Thompson-Williams is considered to be a future 4^thor 5^thoutfielder. Jerry Dipoto has said that he expects both Sheffield and Swanson to be on the Major League roster at some point in 2019, though Thompson-Williams is probably a good 2-3 years away from seeing the Big Leagues. 

In short, the Mariners got a mid-to-back of the rotation starter, a relief pitcher, and a future backup outfielder. What they gave up was one of their best trade chips, a power left-handed starter with two years of team control remaining who could realistically be an All-Star and Cy-Young candidate within that time frame. In my opinion, trading James Paxton was a good idea, but the return they got for him was light compared to what they probably should have demanded.

For example, let's look at the 2016 trade between the Yankees and the Cleveland Indians, in which the Indians acquired relief ace Andrew Miller in exchange for Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield (yes, the same Sheffield the Mariners just acquired), Ben Heller, and J.P. Feyereisen. Frazier was considered one of the top 25 prospects in all of baseball at the time, and Sheffield was in the top 100. Miller had the remainder of the 2016 season, as well as two more years, of time left on his contract. Though Miller was considered one of the best relievers in baseball at the time, he was still just a reliever, and relievers don't typically demand as much return as starters. Paxton is a starter in his prime with dominant stuff, yet the return the Mariners got for him was notably less than what the Yankees got for Miller.

In the summer of 2018 the Tampa Bay Rays traded Chris Archer to the Pittsburg Pirates for Austin Meadows, Tyler Glasnow, and Shane Baz. Archer is just one year younger than Paxton, and similar to Paxton he has had his share of ups-and-downs, and is considered to have a lot of potential as an ace-type pitcher. Archer has three years of club control remaining, while Paxton has two. But it's important to note that while Archer had a very good year in 2015 when he finished #5 in the Cy Young voting, Paxton has been easily the better pitcher within recent years. Sure, Paxton hasn't been as durable as Archer and has never come close to reaching the 200-inning mark in any given season, but Paxton has been easily the more dominant pitcher during those innings that he haspitched within the last several years. 

Meadows is just 23 years old and coming off his first major league season in which he produced replacement-level results. Though he has yet to live up to his hype, he also wasn't bad, and has plenty of time to figure things out. Glasnow also hasn't yet lived up to his former hype, though he is a serviceable major league 5^thor 6^thstarter, and at just 24 years of age, also has plenty of time to mature. Baz throws in the upper 90s, has a deep repertoire of pitches, is believed to have a high ceiling, and is currently the Rays' #6 prospect. In other words, the Rays got themselves significant value in exchange for Archer, so much so that some baseball people think the Pirates overpaid. 

Besides, Glasnow, as is, is almost an exact replacement for Archer. Last year Glasnow threw 111.2 innings split between Pittsburg and Tampa, producing a 1.272 WHIP, 4.00 FIP, and a 4.27 ERA. Archer threw 148.1 innings, with a 1.375 WHIP, 3.75 FIP, and a 4.31 ERA. In other words, the Rays got an immediate replacement for Archer. Glasnow doesn't become a free agent until 2024 and is still young enough that he could improve his upside quite a bit. The Rays got for themselves players who can not only help them immediately, but who they can build around going well into the future.

While other teams around them are trading their top trade chips for significant hauls, the Mariners settled for a lightweight, mediocre return. Jerry Dipoto has done what he usually does, and played it safe in terms of the players he acquired. He has a strong tendency to get guys with high floors and low ceilings; guys that won't be complete duds, but also won't be stars. He acquired more mediocre AAAA level pitchers and a future 4^thor 5^thoutfielder, similar to the plethora of other pitchers and outfielders he has acquired in the past. In this trade he did not acquire anyone who could be a player to build a championship-level team around. He did not acquire anyone I could envision being an integral part of a World Series winning team. All he got were more mediocre players that won't be bad, but also won't be particularly good. And that is why the Mariners are in the position they are currently in – good enough to win 90 games, but not good enough to get to the playoffs, much less get deep into the playoffs. 

You might look at the success of the Taijuan Walker & Ketel Marte trade in exchange for Jean Segura and Mitch Haniger and wonder if this trade could net similar results. I think most people would agree that the Segura/Haniger trade has been Dipoto's best trade yet as the general manager of the Mariners. But what made that trade different was that Segura was already a proven All-Star, while Haniger was an underrated but still high-ceiling prospect. Haniger was overlooked in the Diamondbacks organization due to their plethora of outfielders, though many in baseball whispered about his potential. Indeed, immediately after the trade, some were remarking that Haniger might actually be the real prize.

It's hard to imagine any of the three prospects the Mariners acquired for Paxton turning into a Mitch Haniger-styled diamond in the rough. Based on their scouting reports, it doesn't sound like any of them have all-star level ceilings. I suppose anything is possible in baseball, but we're not here to discuss what's possible. We're here to evaluate this trade, what it means for the organization going forward, and what insight it gives into the Dipoto regime. 

Personally I would have preferred if Jerry had waited for a better offer, an offer too good to refuse, even if that would have meant waiting till the July 31^sttrade deadline. Instead it seems as if he had already made up his mind to trade Paxton this winter, and decided to go for the best offer immediately available. Dipoto should have gotten key pieces the team could rebuild around, instead of more mediocre level pitching. The team already has plenty of that. 

Is Justus Sheffield going to be good enough to help us get over James Paxton? Probably not. Will the total package of Sheffield, Swanson, and Thompson-Williams develop and eventually be good enough to make the Paxton trade seem like it was worth it? Probably not. I don't mean to bash on any of them; all three will very likely be decent major league players at some point in their careers. But none of them are likely to be the standout players that the Mariners need in order to turn themselves from a mediocre franchise into a World Championship franchise. It seems as if all we're going to get is more of the same.

What do you think? Agree? Disagree? Feel free to share your comments.


Rob Kajiwara is a composer, writer, visual artist, baseball player, and human rights activist from Waipahu, Hawaii. www.RobKajiwara.com