Cano, Diaz trade to Mets official


The Mariners and the Mets have officially announced their blockbuster trade, with the Mariners sending Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz to the Mets in exchange for Jarred Kelenic, Justin Dunn, Gerson Bautista, Jay Bruce, and Anthony Swarzak.

While many are portraying this trade as "the Mariners were so desperate to get rid of Cano's huge contract that they were willing to include Edwin Diaz," I'm not sure that's really the best way to look at it. The way I see it is more of two separate trades combined into one:
1) Robinson Cano and $20 million for Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak
2) Edwin Diaz for Jarred Kelenic, Justin Dunn, and Gerson Bautista

With the Mariners in rebuilding mode until 2021 (probably), having Cano around didn't make much sense. While both Bruce and Swarzak had down years in 2018, neither's contract is particularly long that it would cripple the Mariners' planned rebuilding plans. The $20 million is included to help off-set some of Cano's contract for the Mets. Though Cano's contract seems large, he is still an all-star caliber player. Though Bruce had a down year, his production was still sufficient (posting a 117 OPS+), albeit not what was expected from him. The Mariners are expected to quickly trade Swarzak, possibly to the Phillies, as part of the rumored Jean Segura trade.

Though Bruce and Swarzak combined are not worth equal value to Cano, the nice part about this trade for the Mariners is that the organization will be free from Cano's contract by the time they are hoping to contend in 2021, leaving them open to using that money to sign free agents that might help make them into a championship team. By that time Cano will be in his late-30s, and most likely past his prime. Thus, trading him now makes sense for the Mariners future playoff hopes, even if it makes the team worse in the short-term.

For the Mets, it immediately gives them an all-star second baseman who can slide nicely into the heart of their order. This part of the trade seems like a win-win for both sides.

Regarding the Diaz trade, let's look at the prospect the Mariners are receiving:
Kelenic is the centerpiece of this deal. Though just 19 years old and probably at least a couple years away from seeing the Majors, he is a five-tool centerfielder with tremendous potential, and a top-100 prospect. Though he has been ranked this past year more towards the back-end of the top-100, he is expected to move up quite a bit once the new version of the rankings are posted. In my opinion, he is now the Mariners best, most exciting prospect. Though Justus Sheffield will probably continue to be ranked as the team's #1 prospect, Kelenic possesses higher upside, and for that reason SHOULD be seen as the Mariner's top prospect.

Justin Dunn is a 23-year old right-handed pitcher with a plus fastball, an above-average slider and curveball, and a decent change. The only question right now is if he will be able to stabilize his control enough to allow his stuff to play out at the major league level. Most scouts see him as an eventual middle of the rotation starter.

Gerson Bautista is the crap-shoot of this deal. A 23-year old right-handed reliever, Bautista has a fastball that consistently is in the upper-90s to low 100s. He also possesses a good slider, and his wiry frame is causing him to receive comparisons to Edwin Diaz. The difference between Bautista and Diaz, however, is in their control. Whereas Diaz was able to find his control in 2017, allowing him to rocket from AA to the Major Leagues while skipping AAA entirely and becoming an elite closer, Bautista has yet to find his control. If the Mariners are able to help Bautista in this, they could possibly have another Edwin Diaz on their hands.

Overall I think this is a fair trade for both sides. The Mets received two all-stars who will immediately make them much better. The Mariners received three quality prospects who are 2-3 years away from contributing, but could potentially become stars in their own right. For Mariners fans, the addition of Kelenic, Dunn, and Bautista should be seen as an exciting boost to the Mariners farm system and future playoff hopes.


Rob Kajiwara is a singer/songwriter, visual artist, baseball player, and human rights activist from Waipahu, Hawaii. For more information, please visit his website at www.RobKajiwara.com

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